Tar sands: Reprieve or apocalypse?

Abstract:

Based on a Hubbert-type analysis two projections are made of tar sands production. With tar sand production growing at 5%/year total petroleum production declines at an annual rate of 1-2%. With tar sand production growing at 10%/year total petroleum production continues rising at almost the historic rate until 2040 followed by a catastrophic rate of 50%/decade.