World Oil Predictions
This page is out-of-date.
This page was established to propagate important news that was rarely understood or believed.
Now times have changed. People are aware of the limited amount of oil.
For good up-to-date information,
I recommend you visit
The Oil Drum
The publically available raw data is collected for you at
in Excel 5 spreadsheet format.
My friend Christof Stork has
many thoughtful comments.
Petroleum Policy and Politics
thoughtful web site.
Closed Coffin: Ending the Debate on "The End of Cheap Oil"
A commentary by Michael C. Lynch
Summary and good links going both ways.
CRYING WOLF: WARNINGS ABOUT OIL SUPPLY, Michael C. Lynch
wilfrid @ mit.edu
He reviews (March 1998)
many forcasts of Campbell that proved pessimistic
and concludes that "the Hubbert method fails
because it takes recoverable (not total) resources as fixed,
and assumes that to be the area under the curve of total production."
Also, "Campbell has not provided an alternative explanation
[to his forcast errors], [he] merely ignored them."
Colorado Mines, Ivanhoe
has a newletter nicely organized.
The world petroleum life cycle:
Encircling the production peak,
by Richard Duncan,
2004 [is the] year that half the world's producible oil will be gone.
The author offers his
WORLD OIL FORECASTING PROGRAM,
a downloadable, interactive modeling program (for Mac or Windows).
- Depletion patterns show change due for production of
by CJ Campbell, Oil and Gas Journal, pp 33-37, Dec 29, 1997.
The author predicts that world oil production peaks in 2008.
(Formerly this author predicted the peak would occur in 1999.)
The Global Hubbert Peak: WORLD OIL: Reserves, Production,
Politics and Prices
Statement before 1998 was, "Decline sets in about 1999."
Department of Energy
Expect oil price stability until 2015.
Oil prices are not expected to to rise above $25/barrel before 2015.
L.F. Ivanhoe, World Oil, 1995, October, page 77 predicts
a "major increase in fuels prices in 1999" accompanied by
"freezing production level until decline sets in about 2030".
History shows that the oil price
is always between $15-$20/barrel (1996 dollars).
International Energy Agency,
WORLD ENERGY PROSPECTS TO 2020
Projects world conventional oil production peak between 2010 and 2020.
From: Don Paul, Sat, 24 Jan 1998,
Jon: I have subsequently done a little more background work on
forcasting future world production ....It turns out that the 2008 peak
you quote is used by some of the more pessemistic oil
economists.....However, another way to think about this question is to
start with the current world oil production at about 72 million bbl/d
and use a demand /production growth rate of about 1 to 1.5 million
bbl/d...Somewhere in the range of 2015 to 2020, the production would hit
the 95 to 100 million bbl/d level, which many feel is about all the
system can deliver from a capital investment and infrastructure point of
view (reserves are not the limitation)....At that point, the system
would effectively flatten out for several years (but there would still
be several decades of reserves left) and begin a slow decline....These
numbers do not account for natural gas, which is much earlier in its
global development cycle and would reach its peak later in the century
(or maybe much later if methane hydrates ever become a practical
It is important to note that technology has significantly slowed the
decline rates compared to classical resource decline theories in the
most heavy developed oil patch - the US....Our production peaked in 1971
at about a 11 million bbl/d and in 1997 is about 8 million bbl/d....That
gives an average decline rate of only about 2% per year - less than
predicted from nornal depletion curves....Actually, US production may
decline even more slowly over the next few years as a major new trend,
the deepwater Gulf of Mexico, comes on stream.
The bottom line is that technology advances will keep pushing out the
decline curve until well into the next century for oil and even more so
for natural gas.....Other factors are much more likely to intervene in
the careers of earth scientists than actually running out of
Energy Resources --- Cornucopia or Empty Barrel?,
Peter J McCabe, AAPG Bulletin v 82/11 Nov 1998 p2110-2134
Contrasts the "Cornucopians" with the "Neo Malthusians".
Makes no predictions.
Author leans to being a "cornucopian," i.e.,
substitution will take place as production declines.
Prices could remain level or decline.
International Association for Energy Economics
Free information here has disappeared.
It's an expensive journal.
Odd the way the word "publication" has become an oxymoron.
The only one-word oxymoron in the English language?
Some links posted by Harvey Taylor
General energy page
US DOE Oil Production Estimate
USGS World Oil Production
UN World Energy Assessment
The End of Cheap Oil
Running On Empty