Tar sands: Reprieve or apocalypse?

WILL THIS AFFECT YOU?

You may ask, ``What makes you believe these predictions?'' The classic paper of M.King Hubbert, written in 1956 predicted a USA liquid oil peak in 1973. It did peak then. That paper also predicted a world peak about the year 2000, a bit early, but not much. Most recent predictions [1] [2] calculate twice as much oil as Hubbert predicted, but the peak has moved only about a decade later, about now. Why does double the oil move the peak so little? Because so much is depleted in the middle decades. http://www.amazon.com/Beyond-Oil-View-Hubberts-Peak/dp/080902957X/

Didn't you assume the total oil in place? Not for the liquids. When the production peaks, half is gone; the other half is left. There is widespread agreement the production will soon or has already peaked. For the tar sands resource size I refer to The Petroleum Society of Canada. http://www.energy.gov.ab.ca/OilSands/pdfs/RPT _Chops_app3.pdf

The next question is, ``Does it matter to me?'' I suggest you print this page. Upon the printed page draw a horizontal arrow from the day you were born to then plus 84 years. Then draw the arrows for your parents, your children, and grandchildren.

Poor people will be the first to conserve. After that people with long commutes. After that comes you. You have some time prepare yourself before the crowds. Don't waste it! How much time do we have? If the choice is political between the Malthusian and the Cornucopian which choice do you think will be made? I fear the disaster. (Sorry.) Would that the Canadians learned the lesson of the East Texas Oil Field and the Texas Railroad Commission.

Tar sands: Reprieve or apocalypse?